Memory Prices Expected to Rise in Q3 of 2024
The semiconductor industry is about to undergo major changes as the second half of 2024 gets underway, especially concerning the price of memory components. It is said that memory chip prices are likely to increase over time (mainly next quarter). There can be a DRAM shortage if the manufacture of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is prioritized. Additionally, the increasing need for SSDs—another essential artificial intelligence (AI) component—may have an equivalent effect on NAND-flash supply by the end of 2024.
Unprecedented Growth in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) Industry
The need for AI servers has exploded, leading to an unprecedented increase in the high bandwidth memory (HBM) industry. Prominent memory producers Micron and SK Hynix have said they will run out of HBM in 2024 and most of 2025. Consequently, TrendForce analysts predict a 5% to 10% increase in HBM pricing in the next year.
Rising Prices for Other DRAM Types
Prices for other DRAM types, especially DDR5, are expected to rise by 15% to 20% as producers concentrate more on making HBM. HBM’s improved performance and capacity justify its much higher cost compared to normal DRAM—roughly five times more than DDR5. The intricacy of producing HBM further limits production capabilities, increasing the cost of other DRAM varieties. TrendForce, which had previously predicted a 3% to 8% growth in server DRAM contract pricing for the second quarter, has altered its estimate. Starting in Q4 2023, the company projects a 15% to 20% increase, which would be the third straight quarter of double-digit increases in DRAM pricing. Remarkably, server DRAM costs increased by 9% to 19% in April alone across all categories.
Figure 1:DRAM Avg. Spot Price
Samsung Electronics to Raise Enterprise NAND-Flash and Server DRAM Prices
As per the reports generated by a South Korean economic newspaper, The Maeil Business Newspaper, Samsung Electronics is anticipating raising the price of its enterprise NAND-flash and server DRAM by 15% to 20% during the 3rd quarter. It is expected that this choice, which was motivated by the strong demand for memory chip AI applications, will improve Samsung’s performance in the latter part of the year. Several Taiwanese chipmakers, such as Nanya Technology, ADATA, TeamGroup, and Transcend, will also benefit from it.
Robust industry support is highlighted in a different study, which was published by Economic Daily News. Industry insiders state that the three manufacturers’ development of high bandwidth memory (HBM) will keep the DRAM market robust.
On June 26th, Samsung Electronics notified consumers of the upcoming memory chip price rise. This occurred after NAND flash costs increased by 20% in the second quarter. Several original component manufacturers (OCMs) expect the need for servers to continually rise due to AI, especially in the second half of the year.
As far as Samsung is concerned, they are managing the price scenario of their SSDs and DRAM in a more straightforward way. According to TrendForce, the server DRAM’s cost will increase by at least 10% on a quarter-by-quarter basis.
There hasn’t been much of an effect on the memory semiconductor markets, even as Samsung reallocates its D1A process to concentrate on producing high bandwidth memory (HBM). Similarly, a recent incident that occurred in late June at Micron’s Taichung failed to affect the trajectory of spot prices while not resulting in any notable losses. DDR4 prices have decreased significantly more than DDR5 prices, which have sometimes increased due to the reallocation of D14 processes.
Figure 2:DRAM and NAND Flash Supply/Demand Bit Growth 2020-2024
Rising DRAM Prices in Specific Markets
Market downturn does not seem to be an issue in some memory semiconductor markets, or DRAM markets to be specific, including servers. Finance experts and marketers have estimated the average selling price of DRAM to increase by 8% to 13% in the 3rd quarter. We expect conventional DRAM costs to rise gradually by 5% to 10% after a slight decrease.
Opportunities for Replenishment in Q3
Although purchasers were cautious regarding replenishing in the second quarter, there could be more chances in the third quarter, especially for mobile DRAM, as cloud service providers (CSPs) and smartphones prepare for the busiest time of year. After a period of low activity earlier in the year, smartphones and servers drove memory sales in Q3, representing a significant reversal from prior quarters.
Different Companies See Revenue Growth Amid Rising Memory Prices
Due to declining supply and growing demand, memory costs have been rising, which has significantly increased income for several businesses, including the following:
Adata: The business has had phenomenal development; its September sales of NT$14.82 billion ($461.2 million) was a 16.47% monthly rise and an astounding 113.10% yearly growth. Additionally, Adata’s Q3 sales increased dramatically by 116.33% on an annual basis.
Winbond: This specialized memory manufacturer saw a resurgence in consumer demand, as seen by its September sales of NT$67.66 billion ($2.1 billion), which increased by 5.32% over the previous month. For the third quarter, profits were NT$195.06 billion ($6.07 billion).
Phison: The leading producer of SSD controllers, Phison, said in September that its monthly sales had increased by around 25.3%, bringing in NT$50.04 billion ($1.557 billion). Their third-quarter statistics revealed a 15% year-over-year fall but a 24% quarter-over-quarter growth.
DDR5 and DDR4 Prices Expected to Rise Due to SK Hynix Production Cuts
According to a Taiwan Business Times story that MyDrivers and Wccftech both noted, SK Hynix’s recent production cuts on RAM have resulted in a DRAM shortage and a sharp decline in supplies. We anticipate DDR5 costs to increase shortly, possibly by 15% to 20%, and DDR4 costs to rise by about 10% to 15%. Due to the strong demand for memory components, there is a reduction in supply, which drives up market prices. The layoffs of a significant industry participant highlight the continued difficulties in maintaining a balance between supply and demand in the semiconductor industry.
TrendForce predicts that inventory replenishment in Q4 will bolster the memory chip price increase and that more replenishment may be part of the procurement strategy for 2025. Due to higher allotments for HBM and SSDs, experts are warning buyers about potential memory shortages. This development will bring significant changes to the semiconductor industry in the second half of 2024, driven mainly by increasing demand for memory components and decreasing production.
Fatima Razzaq is a freelance technical writer who served as an electrical engineering lecturer at Air University—a federally chartered public sector research university in Pakistan. Razzaq holds a Bachelor’s degree with distinction in electronic engineering from Ghulam Ishaq Khan Institute of Engineering Sciences and Technology (GIKI) and a Master’s degree in Sustainable Transportation and Electrical Power Systems from the University of Nottingham, Universidad de Oviedo, and La Sapienza University of Rome. Razzaq’s diverse work experiences in academia and industry continue to inform her prolific technical writing journey in the areas of electrical engineering, storage mechanisms, power electronics, electric vehicles, energy, and related topics.
